San Antonio, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Lubbock, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...
MARGINAL
403,159
36,629,814
Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
15,915
96,653
Del Rio, TX...Uvalde, TX...
2 %
197,249
18,946,690
San Antonio, TX...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Corpus Christi, TX...Lubbock, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
93,683
5,564,712
San Antonio, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Lubbock, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...
5 %
406,509
37,288,808
Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...Miami, FL...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Brownsville, TX...Abilene, TX...
SPC AC 251609
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight across
parts of west-central into south Texas.
...TX...
Morning water vapor loops shows a deepening upper trough over NM.
This feature will continue to strengthen and track into TX later
today. The air mass over much of west TX has been modified greatly
compared to yesterday due to widespread convection, with afternoon
dewpoints along/east of the dryline expected to only be in the upper
50s. Nevertheless, increasing large-scale forcing and a weak cap
should lead to thunderstorm development along the dryline and into
the mountains of northern Mexico. Initial storms will be
supercellular with a risk of very large hail and perhaps a tornado
or two. Overnight, storms are expected to organize into a
fast-moving bowing complex that will spread across much of south TX
with a continued risk of damaging winds and large hail.
...MN/WI/Upper MI...
A few intense storms capable of hail and gusty winds have developed
this morning over the upper MS Valley. This threat is expected to
remain relatively localized as it spreads northeastward into upper
MI this afternoon. Please refer to MCD #722 for mesoscale details.
...IA/Northern MO...
A remnant MCV is noted over eastern KS tracking northward. This
system is similar but weaker than the one roughly in the same
position yesterday. Breaks in the clouds over northern MO and IA
may result in sufficient destabilization for a few rotating storms,
where backed low-level winds enhance vertical shear. Isolated gusty
winds or brief tornadoes are possible in this area.
...Western AR/Eastern OK...
Another weak MCV is currently over east TX drifting northward.
While the overall risk of severe storms ahead of this feature seems
low, there is a chance of a few intense cells capable of gusty winds
or brief tornadoes across eastern OK and western AR this afternoon
and evening.
..Hart/Bentley.. 05/25/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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