SPC AC 251953

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

   Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   EXTREME NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OK...WESTERN AR AND SOUTHWEST MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across
   parts of west-central into south Texas. Additional severe storms are
   possible across portions of the Ozarks through this evening.
   Damaging wind, hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible with
   these storms.

   ...Ozarks Vicinity...

   A Slight risk has been added from extreme northeast TX northward
   into far southeast KS/southwest MO. Most guidance shows that low
   level shear will increase to around 30-40 kt in conjunction with a
   northward-advancing MCV, which is currently centered over northeast
   TX. Areas of strong heating have occurred in broken cloudiness and
   temperatures have made it into the low 80s across parts of
   southeastern OK into western AR. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
   to low 70s are aiding in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. 850 mb southeasterly
   winds are forecast to increase to 35-45 kt through this evening,
   with backed low level flow resulting in 0-1 km SRH around 150-200
   m2/s2 in the presence of mean mixing ratios around 13-14 g/kg. As a
   result, some organized storm structures are expected from late this
   afternoon into this evening as the MCV and related convection
   develop northward. Locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado are
   possible. While midlevel lapse rates are poor, a persistent, intense
   cell could produce small hail.

   ...TX...

   Only minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight
   risk area. Severe probabilities were removed from southeast NM and
   portions of far western TX. Strong convection across this area is
   unlikely as this area remains on the cool side of the surface
   boundary and cloud cover and poor boundary layer moisture have
   limited instability.

   ..Leitman.. 05/25/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020/

   ...TX...
   Morning water vapor loops shows a deepening upper trough over NM. 
   This feature will continue to strengthen and track into TX later
   today.  The air mass over much of west TX has been modified greatly
   compared to yesterday due to widespread convection, with afternoon
   dewpoints along/east of the dryline expected to only be in the upper
   50s.  Nevertheless, increasing large-scale forcing and a weak cap
   should lead to thunderstorm development along the dryline and into
   the mountains of northern Mexico.  Initial storms will be
   supercellular with a risk of very large hail and perhaps a tornado
   or two.  Overnight, storms are expected to organize into a
   fast-moving bowing complex that will spread across much of south TX
   with a continued risk of damaging winds and large hail.

   ...MN/WI/Upper MI...
   A few intense storms capable of hail and gusty winds have developed
   this morning over the upper MS Valley.  This threat is expected to
   remain relatively localized as it spreads northeastward into upper
   MI this afternoon. Please refer to MCD #722 for mesoscale details.

   ...IA/Northern MO...
   A remnant MCV is noted over eastern KS tracking northward.  This
   system is similar but weaker than the one roughly in the same
   position yesterday.  Breaks in the clouds over northern MO and IA
   may result in sufficient destabilization for a few rotating storms,
   where backed low-level winds enhance vertical shear.  Isolated gusty
   winds or brief tornadoes are possible in this area.

   ...Western AR/Eastern OK...
   Another weak MCV is currently over east TX drifting northward. 
   While the overall risk of severe storms ahead of this feature seems
   low, there is a chance of a few intense cells capable of gusty winds
   or brief tornadoes across eastern OK and western AR this afternoon
   and evening.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z