Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
13,820
3,040,014
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...San Marcos, TX...New Braunfels, TX...Schertz, TX...
2 %
29,749
7,304,210
Houston, TX...Pasadena, TX...Round Rock, TX...Sugar Land, TX...The Woodlands, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
15,704
2,978,911
San Antonio, TX...Victoria, TX...San Marcos, TX...New Braunfels, TX...Schertz, TX...
30 %
16,682
3,013,636
San Antonio, TX...Victoria, TX...San Marcos, TX...New Braunfels, TX...Schertz, TX...
15 %
24,811
7,334,330
Houston, TX...Austin, TX...Pasadena, TX...Round Rock, TX...Sugar Land, TX...
SPC AC 280100
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
CORRECTED TO REMOVE TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN THE CAROLINAS.
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm risk continues over south-central Texas this
evening. Very large hail, severe wind, and a tornado or two remains
possible.
...01z Update...
Organized thunderstorm clusters are progressing southeast across
south-central TX at roughly 25kt. This activity has evolved within a
modestly sheared northwesterly flow regime on the back side of the
lower MS Valley upper trough. A reservoir of strong buoyancy
currently extends across south-central TX ahead of this convection
and there is reason to believe southeast progression will result in
this activity moving off the middle TX Coast later this evening. 00z
sounding from CRP supports this possibility with steep lapse rates
and adequate flow for the maintenance of ongoing updrafts. Large
hail continues to be noted with the strongest updrafts, especially
across ww232. In addition to damaging wind threat, a tornado can not
be ruled out with the strongest supercell structures.
..Darrow.. 05/28/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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