Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
72,302
11,412,173
San Antonio, TX...Washington, DC...Laredo, TX...Arlington, VA...Columbia, MD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
53,941
3,560,061
San Antonio, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Victoria, TX...Mission, TX...
SPC AC 281629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible later today over southwest Texas near the
Rio Grande. Other more widely scattered strong to severe storms
will occur this afternoon over a broad area from southeast Texas
into the Gulf Coast states, Tennessee Valley, and Appalachian
region.
...Southwest TX...
A persistent upper low remains over eastern OK/western AR today,
with northwesterly mid/upper level flow across TX. Strong heating
is occurring across southwest TX, where ample low level moisture
remains and significant destabilization is forecast. A strong
capping inversion is present this morning, but should weaken through
the afternoon as daytime heating and weak large scale forcing
occurs. This will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over
northern Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley. Forecast soundings show
steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient deep layer shear for
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...TX into the Appalachians...
Moderately strong southwesterly mid level winds extend from TX up
the spine of the Appalachians today. This area is also quite moist
and unstable with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and afternoon
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg expected. Scattered clusters of
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across this broad zone,
and the potential exists for locally strong or damaging wind gusts
throughout the region. However, local concentrations of severe risk
are low confidence, and CAM solutions vary significantly -
warranting only a MRGL risk category.
...CO...
A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to form over the
mountains and foothills of CO this afternoon. Weak instability and
limited low-level moisture suggest that robust updrafts may struggle
to make it off the higher terrain. But any storms that form could
pose a risk of hail or gusty winds.
..Hart/Bentley.. 05/28/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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