SPC AC 281953

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

   Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong/severe storms will continue this afternoon/evening
   across southwest Texas near the Rio Grande.  Other more widely
   scattered strong to severe storms will persist this afternoon over a
   broad area from southeast Texas into the Gulf Coast states,
   Tennessee Valley, and Appalachian region.

   ...Discussion...
   Aside from minor line adjustments, will maintain the status quo with
   respect to the ongoing outlook.  The primary risk area remains over
   portions of the southern half of Texas, coincident with the SLGT
   risk area and newly issued WW #233, with more isolated/local severe
   risk over the remainder of the MRGL risk areas.

   ..Goss.. 05/28/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020/

   ...Southwest TX...
   A persistent upper low remains over eastern OK/western AR today,
   with northwesterly mid/upper level flow across TX.  Strong heating
   is occurring across southwest TX, where ample low level moisture
   remains and significant destabilization is forecast.  A strong
   capping inversion is present this morning, but should weaken through
   the afternoon as daytime heating and weak large scale forcing
   occurs.  This will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over
   northern Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley.  Forecast soundings show
   steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient deep layer shear for
   supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.  

   ...TX into the Appalachians...
   Moderately strong southwesterly mid level winds extend from TX up
   the spine of the Appalachians today.  This area is also quite moist
   and unstable with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and afternoon
   MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg expected.  Scattered clusters of
   thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across this broad zone,
   and the potential exists for locally strong or damaging wind gusts
   throughout the region.  However, local concentrations of severe risk
   are low confidence, and CAM solutions vary significantly -
   warranting only a MRGL risk category.

   ...CO...
   A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to form over the
   mountains and foothills of CO this afternoon.  Weak instability and
   limited low-level moisture suggest that robust updrafts may struggle
   to make it off the higher terrain.  But any storms that form could
   pose a risk of hail or gusty winds.

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