May 29, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 29 00:38:59 UTC 2020 (20200529 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200529 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200529 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 19,996 1,947,050 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...
MARGINAL 24,827 3,133,581 Charlotte, NC...Gastonia, NC...Concord, NC...Rock Hill, SC...Huntersville, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200529 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200529 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 20,115 1,949,103 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...
5 % 26,278 3,175,057 Charlotte, NC...Gastonia, NC...Concord, NC...Rock Hill, SC...Huntersville, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200529 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 19,907 1,947,245 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...
5 % 14,648 97,780 Eagle Pass, TX...Beeville, TX...Rockport, TX...
   SPC AC 290038

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

   Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTH TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across
   portions of south Texas. Wind and hail are the primary risks.

   ...South Texas...

   00z soundings from CRP and BRO exhibit considerable instability with
   MLCAPE in excess of 5000 J/kg at CRP this evening. Convection
   continues to develop along a weak surface boundary as it sags south
   across south-central TX. While the strongest storms are just west of
   the international border, new storms are forming from the middle TX
   Coast - Duval County - Webb County. This activity may continue to
   propagate toward deep south TX, thus higher severe probs have been
   extended toward the coast to account for this possibility.

   ..Darrow.. 05/29/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z