Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Cleveland, OH...
SPC AC 291541
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail
are likely across parts of the Northeast states through about 9 PM
EDT.
...Northeast...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across a broad swath of the
region. These should be primarily focused along a cold front in OH,
pre-frontal convergence zone off the Lower Great Lakes in western
NY, and along a lee trough from eastern NY to northern VA. While
mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, robust boundary-layer
heating is underway, especially ahead of the lee trough. With
strengthening mid-level southwesterlies, 30-50 kt effective shear
will be supportive of a mixed mode of transient supercells embedded
within clusters that should largely congeal into multiple linear
segments. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary threat.
Convection along the lee trough will have the best chance to produce
severe hail given larger buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching
1000-2000 J/kg, as well as the possibility of a tornado or two
during the late afternoon and early evening.
...Northwest...
Isolated thunderstorms should develop at peak heating within an arc
of ambient anticyclonic mid-level flow across the northern Rockies,
most likely off the Sawtooths and Big Horns. Sufficient deep-layer
shear and steep lapse rates will exist for a risk of localized
severe gusts and marginally severe hail into this evening.
..Grams/Moore.. 05/29/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
