Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Cleveland, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
388,078
70,024,598
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...
SPC AC 291958
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms primarily capable of producing
damaging winds will continue across parts of the Northeast states
through about 9 PM EDT.
...Discussion...
Few adjustments appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this
time. Primary changes at this time are to reduce the hail
probability across the Northeast, where primary severe risk will
remain locally damaging wind gusts into the evening, and to reduce
the MRGL risk area in the west (i.e. removing probabilities from
Oregon and vicinity).
..Goss.. 05/29/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020/
...Northeast...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across a broad swath of the
region. These should be primarily focused along a cold front in OH,
pre-frontal convergence zone off the Lower Great Lakes in western
NY, and along a lee trough from eastern NY to northern VA. While
mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, robust boundary-layer
heating is underway, especially ahead of the lee trough. With
strengthening mid-level southwesterlies, 30-50 kt effective shear
will be supportive of a mixed mode of transient supercells embedded
within clusters that should largely congeal into multiple linear
segments. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary threat.
Convection along the lee trough will have the best chance to produce
severe hail given larger buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching
1000-2000 J/kg, as well as the possibility of a tornado or two
during the late afternoon and early evening.
...Northwest...
Isolated thunderstorms should develop at peak heating within an arc
of ambient anticyclonic mid-level flow across the northern Rockies,
most likely off the Sawtooths and Big Horns. Sufficient deep-layer
shear and steep lapse rates will exist for a risk of localized
severe gusts and marginally severe hail into this evening.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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