Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
MARGINAL
275,773
50,985,832
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
152,204
9,644,789
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
5 %
277,050
51,119,161
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
151,911
9,646,115
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
5 %
277,076
50,633,185
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...
SPC AC 040053
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered clusters of strong to severe storms will continue
developing into tonight, mainly from the central Great Plains
through the Midwest region. Damaging winds and large hail remain the
primary hazards.
...Central Plains through the Midwest...
Clusters of storms from NE into western KS may continue to
consolidate as cold pools merge while developing southeast this
evening. The downstream atmosphere is very unstable with 3000-3500
J/kg MLCAPE. However, convective inhibition will increase this
evening as the surface layer cools, which in conjunction with lack
of a nocturnal low-level jet, lends some uncertainty to how far
southeast the storms can be sustained. Other storms are developing
over eastern MO with some backbuilding indicated along the outflow
boundary. Primary forcing mechanism will be lift along the evolving
cold pools as outflow boundaries merge and consolidate with damaging
wind and large hail the main threats.
...Ohio Valley through the Northeast States...
The stronger storms over the northeast states are in the process of
moving offshore. Farther upstream across the OH Valley, a few
multicell storms persist from southern IN through southern OH. This
activity may remain capable of a few locally strong to severe gusts
and hail through about 02Z or 03Z but an overall weakening trend is
anticipated as the boundary layer stabilizes in the presence of weak
forcing.
..Dial.. 06/04/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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