Missoula, MT...Great Falls, MT...Pine Bluff, AR...Monroe, LA...Hattiesburg, MS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
169,730
2,425,456
Missoula, MT...Great Falls, MT...Pine Bluff, AR...Monroe, LA...Hattiesburg, MS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
139,755
1,018,970
Missoula, MT...Great Falls, MT...Pine Bluff, AR...Bozeman, MT...Butte, MT...
SPC AC 060042
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging gusts are possible this evening across parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley. Other strong to severe thunderstorms may occur
over the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this evening indicates a mid-level shortwave
trough near the OR coast and this feature is forecast to move into
Columbia Basin by early Saturday morning. Meanwhile farther east, a
mid-level ridge will slide east from the central-northern High
Plains into the central and northern Great Plains. An area of
surface low pressure over the northern High Plains will become
better defined over southeast/central MT by the end of the period.
...Lower MS Valley...
Radar imagery shows an ongoing squall line moving southward through
central MS early this evening. The mature cold pool/gust front will
likely continue south within the weak shear/low-CAPE environment
(reference 00z JAN/LIX raobs less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE) during the
evening. However, a weakening in storm intensity via increasing
localized nature of damaging gusts (45-60 mph) will likely occur as
the boundary layer gradually cools this evening and low-level lapse
rates become less supportive for damaging gusts.
...Northern Rockies...
Initial lobe of ascent is overspreading eastern OR this evening and
will continue to gradually spread eastward through the late evening
into western MT. Steep lapse rates and adequate shear for storm
organization will combine to favor several widely spaced strong to
severe thunderstorms this evening. Large hail and severe gusts are
the primary risks. The risk will likely diminish by late evening.
...Bakken region of northeast MT/western ND...
A strengthening LLJ/warm-air-advection regime late tonight will
likely lead to at least isolated storms developing mainly 08-12z
from eastern MT into western ND. Although a strong/damaging gust
cannot be ruled out, isolated large hail appears to be the primary
concern.
..Smith.. 06/06/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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