Orlando, FL...Sioux Falls, SD...Gainesville, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Deltona, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
75,986
420,578
Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Pierre, SD...
45 %
18,793
27,434
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
30 %
57,322
397,256
Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Pierre, SD...
15 %
100,895
757,197
Sioux Falls, SD...Minot, ND...North Platte, NE...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...
5 %
249,604
14,896,827
Virginia Beach, VA...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
145,083
922,974
Sioux Falls, SD...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...
5 %
274,709
8,282,884
Richmond, VA...Hampton, VA...Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Grand Forks, ND...
SPC AC 070121
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE WEST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
CORRECTED FOR DELINEATING THE CATEGORICAL RISKS OVER THE GULF COAST
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe gusts are likely across parts of the northern
Great Plains this evening and continuing into the overnight.
Significant severe gust swaths are possible. A conditional risk for
a tornado or two remains across parts of the Florida Peninsula
tonight.
...Northern Great Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a powerful mid-level trough
moving north-northeast across WY with this feature forecast to reach
the U.S./Canadian border by early Sunday. Radar imagery shows an
extensive severe squall line located from eastern CO northward
through western SD. The airmass downstream of this severe squall
line was sampled by the 00z Rapid City, SD raob, which showed
moderate instability (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a strongly veering wind
profile with increasing flow with height through the mid-levels. As
the squall line crosses through the moisture plume that arcs
west-northwest to east-southeast across SD (co-located with surface
pressure falls), the squall line will likely intensify this evening.
Widespread gusts around 60 mph are expected with corridors of 75+
mph expected with the bowing segments during the evening hours.
Have included a Moderate Risk to reflect both the increased
confidence for severe gusts and observational trends this evening.
...FL...
Tropical storm Cristobal is moving northward across the central Gulf
of Mexico, and is forecast to make landfall in LA tomorrow (please
refer to the latest NHC advisories regarding storm specifics). An
early evening risk for a supercell tornado may maximize over
northeast FL followed by a lingering conditional tornado risk for
storms to approach the west coast of FL late tonight.
...Southern half of VA...
Several strong to severe thunderstorms have developed this evening
from near Chesapeake Bay westward into southern WV. A risk for
large hail and locally damaging winds will probably exist through
the mid evening before gradual reduction in surface-based
instability leads to storms weakening below severe thresholds by
later this evening.
..Smith.. 06/07/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
