Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
10,109
154,485
Grand Forks, ND...
10 %
10,293
154,170
Grand Forks, ND...
5 %
60,371
3,530,389
New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Fargo, ND...Gulfport, MS...
2 %
120,359
2,850,985
Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Pensacola, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 080055
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging
gusts, and a few tornadoes will persist this evening from central
South Dakota into eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.
Isolated tornadoes remain possible along the north central Gulf
coast.
...Central through eastern Dakotas...
Numerous strong to severe storms will continue developing this
evening through the central and eastern Dakotas into northwest MN.
The atmosphere remains moderately unstable in this region with steep
(7.5 - 8 C/km) mid level lapse rates and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. VWP
data show unidirectional wind profiles, but with 45+ kt effective
bulk shear supportive of organized storms including supercells.
There may be a tendency for some storms to evolve into clusters with
mixed storm modes. Large hail, damaging wind appear likely and a few
tornadoes are possible. Greatest tornado threat will persist through
mid evening from eastern ND into northwest MN where 0-1 km hodograph
size is maximized in association with a strengthening low-level jet
and backed surface winds near a warm front.
...Southeast Louisiana through southern Mississippi and southwest
Alabama...
Convection within outer rain bands of Cristobal continues spreading
inland along the central Gulf Coast region. VWP data from Mobile
show large low-level hodographs northeast of the center. Cristobal
is forecast by the NHC to continue on a north northwesterly track
tonight through southeast LA and into southwest MS. Threat for a
couple of brief tornadoes will persist into the overnight as this
feature advances inland.
..Dial.. 06/08/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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