Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
42,966
9,699,164
Detroit, MI...Toledo, OH...Fort Wayne, IN...Warren, MI...Sterling Heights, MI...
45 %
31,232
8,144,269
Detroit, MI...Toledo, OH...Warren, MI...Sterling Heights, MI...Lansing, MI...
SPC AC 100542
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Ohio Valley and lower Michigan region. Severe, damaging wind gusts
are the main threat, though a few tornadoes and some hail threat are
also possible.
...Lower Michigan/Ohio Valley...
Early this morning, water-vapor imagery depicted a strong upper low
over northeastern KS, shifting east-northeast in line with
late-evening model guidance. This feature is forecast to eject
across the mid MS Valley during the day and become negatively tilted
as strongest 500mb flow rotates through the base of the trough into
the downstream position over central IL by 18z, then southern lower
MI by 11/00z. At 0530z, remnants of Cristobal are lifting quickly
north across the upper Great Lakes and it appears the wavelength
between these two features is sufficient for modest boundary-layer
heating ahead of the front, especially across IN into southern lower
MI by 18z. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures will warm
into the mid 80s by early afternoon as substantial mid-level drying
should overspread this region allowing for partial sunshine. There
is increasing confidence that scattered convection will initiate
along/ahead of the cold front between 18-20z. While low-level SRH is
not particularly high, it appears a mixed storm mode will evolve
with supercells, short-line segments, and clusters ultimately
maturing ahead of the short wave. Latest guidance indicates 12hr
mid-level height falls between 120-150m will overspread this region
and large-scale forcing for ascent will encourage an upward-evolving
pre-frontal convective corridor. Mean storm motions around 45kt are
expected with these storms. Additionally, moderate MLCAPE (2000
J/kg) will ensure robust updrafts that should remain organized
within the strongly sheared regime. As a result, widespread severe,
damaging winds are expected, especially with line segments. Some
tornado threat also will exist with supercell structures.
Farther east, strong heating across the central Appalachians will
aid scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon well ahead
of the upper trough. This activity will not be strongly forced, but
adequately sheared for at least some threat for isolated wind/hail.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 06/10/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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