Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 101628
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...EXTREME NORTHEAST IN...AND NORTHWEST OH...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Midwest and Ohio Valley today and tonight. Damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts are the main threat, although a few tornadoes and severe
hail are also possible.
...Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening...
Thunderstorm development is already underway over southwest Lower MI
with clusters/embedded bowing segments likely to persist through the
afternoon as the storms spread northeastward. Farther south,
thunderstorm development is also underway along the initial wind
shift/convergence boundary across IN, in advance of the midlevel
trough moving from MO to IL. A very moist boundary layer (dewpoints
in the low 70s) is present east of the boundary, where surface
temperatures are warming well into the 80s as of midday, which is
resulting in MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg with very little
convective inhibition.
Storm coverage/intensity will increase through the afternoon across
IN/OH and Lower MI in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough and
surface boundary, and storm development southward into KY is also
expected. Deep-layer vertical shear is favorable for both
supercells and bowing segments, given effective bulk shear of 40-50
kt. Hodographs are relatively long but straight, with modest
low-level shear. Therefore, fairly widespread damaging winds will
be the main threat, though a couple of tornadoes and isolated large
hail will also be possible. Convection is expected to evolve into
more of a squall line with time and eastward extent, with the
damaging-wind threat persisting through late evening/early tonight
across OH. The storms could reach WV and western NY/PA before
weakening overnight.
..Thompson/Lyons.. 06/10/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
