Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 102000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWESTERN OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the
Midwest and Ohio Valley today and tonight. Damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts remain the primary threat, although a few tornadoes and
severe hail are also possible.
...Discussion...
Aside from line tweaks to adjust the western fringe of the risk
areas based on current convective progression, no changes to the
outlook appear necessary, as prior reasoning appears to accurately
reflect anticipated evolution of the risk. Strong/damaging winds
will continue from parts of southeastern Lower Michigan southward to
Kentucky, with less widespread severe risk as far east as
Pennsylvania and New York this afternoon and evening -- and possibly
into the overnight hours.
..Goss.. 06/10/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020/
...Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening...
Thunderstorm development is already underway over southwest Lower MI
with clusters/embedded bowing segments likely to persist through the
afternoon as the storms spread northeastward. Farther south,
thunderstorm development is also underway along the initial wind
shift/convergence boundary across IN, in advance of the midlevel
trough moving from MO to IL. A very moist boundary layer (dewpoints
in the low 70s) is present east of the boundary, where surface
temperatures are warming well into the 80s as of midday, which is
resulting in MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg with very little
convective inhibition.
Storm coverage/intensity will increase through the afternoon across
IN/OH and Lower MI in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough and
surface boundary, and storm development southward into KY is also
expected. Deep-layer vertical shear is favorable for both
supercells and bowing segments, given effective bulk shear of 40-50
kt. Hodographs are relatively long but straight, with modest
low-level shear. Therefore, fairly widespread damaging winds will
be the main threat, though a couple of tornadoes and isolated large
hail will also be possible. Convection is expected to evolve into
more of a squall line with time and eastward extent, with the
damaging-wind threat persisting through late evening/early tonight
across OH. The storms could reach WV and western NY/PA before
weakening overnight.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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