SPC AC 110047

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
   OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of the upper Ohio
   Valley this evening. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts remain the
   primary threat.

   ...Upper OH Valley...

   Strong upper low has ejected into southern lower MI this evening and
   large-scale forcing for ascent is now spreading north of the
   international border, and east across the upper OH Valley. Squall
   line that developed in response to this forcing has progressed
   across all but eastern OH. 00z sounding at PIT was notably unstable
   with steep low-level lapse rates. Given the air mass observed
   immediately downstream, this well-developed MCS will continue to
   surge east and should remain organized and severe through at least
   the western portions of PA, and perhaps into western NY. Have
   adjusted 30 percent wind probs a bit downstream to account for this
   scenario.

   Farther east across central PA into the Hudson Valley region,
   earlier convection has stabilized the air mass considerably. Outflow
   has surged into western PA and this may influence the squall line as
   it spreads east of the Pittsburgh area. Will maintain SLGT Risk
   across this region due to strengthening shear and some uncertainty
   regarding the squall line interaction with cooler boundary layer.

   ..Darrow.. 06/11/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z