Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...Odessa, TX...
MARGINAL
155,684
9,268,137
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
49,168
748,374
Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...Big Spring, TX...
5 %
170,293
10,083,812
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
53,656
1,482,273
Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...Odessa, TX...
5 %
153,757
5,035,433
Oklahoma City, OK...Sioux Falls, SD...Abilene, TX...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...
SPC AC 210100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN SD/NEB...WEST TX...AND SOUTHERN OK/FAR NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds should
continue across parts of the northern and central Plains for a few
more hours this evening. Other storms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts also remain possible across parts of west Texas
this evening, and southern Oklahoma/far north Texas late tonight.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening along and ahead of
a cold front and surface trough extending across parts of the
northern/central Plains. Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly winds
exist across this region, and a favorable thermodynamic environment
is present downstream of ongoing convection, particularly over parts
of eastern SD/NE into north-central KS. Current expectations are for
at least an isolated severe hail/wind threat to continue for a few
more hours, before storms gradually weaken with eastward extent with
the loss of daytime heating. For more information on the near-term
severe risk across this area, see Mesoscale Discussions 947 and 948.
...Southern Plains...
A few storms that developed earlier across parts of west TX
along/east of a dryline should continue to pose an isolated large
hail and severe wind gust threat this evening. Flow at both low/mid
levels observed on the 00Z MAF sounding is weaker compared to
locations farther north, which should keep the overall severe threat
fairly isolated through the remainder of the evening. Additional
storms may develop late tonight into early Sunday morning across
parts of far north TX and southern OK as low-level southerly flow
strengthens in tandem with a low-level jet. A substantial
instability reservoir (MUCAPE 2000-3000+ J/kg) is expected to remain
over this region, which may support mainly an isolated large hail
threat with any storms that can form.
...Elsewhere...
Marginal severe probabilities for hail/wind have been
reduced/removed from much of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley and
east TX, as well as parts of the East Coast. Nocturnal cooling of
the boundary layer will result in a continued increase in convective
inhibition through the rest of the evening and into tonight, with a
diminishing severe risk evident.
..Gleason.. 06/21/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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