Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sioux City, IA...
MARGINAL
284,616
21,420,158
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
67,485
3,232,720
Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Sioux City, IA...Edmond, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Sioux City, IA...
5 %
284,625
21,430,859
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
5,081
25,920
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
15 %
53,465
1,530,877
Wichita, KS...Sioux City, IA...Enid, OK...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...
5 %
165,621
11,226,752
Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Lincoln, NE...
SPC AC 220100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHWESTERN OK...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MN...AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL WI...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms will continue this evening into tonight,
mainly across portions of southern Kansas, the far eastern Texas
Panhandle, and western/central Oklahoma. Numerous damaging wind
gusts and isolated large hail should remain the primary threats.
...01Z Update...
Primary severe threat should remain focused across southern KS into
parts of western/central OK this evening with an ongoing MCS.
Multiple measured severe wind gusts producing damaging have been
reported with this convection, and current expectations are for this
bow to move quickly south-southeastward along an instability
gradient across western/central OK this evening and tonight. A
south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to strengthen this
evening across the southern High Plains, which should support
scattered to numerous severe wind gusts for at least the next few
hours, mainly across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwestern
OK. Isolated large hail may also occur, particularly with any
embedded supercell on the southwestern flank of the line. There is
some potential for at least isolated damaging winds to continue late
tonight into early Monday morning across southern OK and parts of
north TX. Have therefore expanded 15% severe wind probabilities and
corresponding Slight Risk southward across this area.
Farther north, convection has struggled to intensify along a weak
front in central/eastern NE. This may be related to earlier
convection limiting the degree of diurnal heating and related
instability. An isolated hail/wind risk may continue in the short
term across this region (see Mesoscale Discussion 961), but
continued nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer should result in a
gradually diminishing severe threat across NE.
Mainly an isolated strong to severe wind threat may continue for
another couple hours across north-central/northeastern IA into far
western WI with a small cluster. These storms should weaken with
eastward extent across WI as instability gradually lessens.
Elsewhere, occasional strong/gusty winds capable of producing mainly
tree damage may occur for another hour or two with ongoing
convection across parts of the lower MS Valley.
..Gleason.. 06/22/2020
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