Oklahoma City, OK...St. Louis, MO...Topeka, KS...Olathe, KS...South Bend, IN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
SPC AC 230058
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts
should continue this evening and tonight over parts of the southern
Plains.
...01Z Update...
Primary corridor of severe hail/wind risk should remain confined to
parts of the southern Plains this evening and tonight. Multiple
supercells have developed across the TX Panhandle and far eastern NM
in a low-level upslope flow regime. Modestly strengthening
west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels will continue to
support strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt this evening. Scattered
large to potentially very large (2+ inches) will be a threat in the
short term. There is also evidence of upscale growth already
occurring across the northwestern TX Panhandle. This trend is
expected to continue this evening and tonight, and a well-developed
MCS should move southeastward across the southern High Plains and
into parts of north/central TX later tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts will be the main
threat once the storm mode becomes mainly linear. Significant severe
gusts may occur this evening across parts of the TX Panhandle where
a very well-mixed boundary layer will support efficient downdraft
accelerations.
Two separate clusters of storms are moving south-southeastward early
this evening across south-central NE and northeastern KS along/ahead
of a reinforcing cold front. Northwesterly winds strengthen through
mid levels, and a marginally favorable thermodynamic environment may
support isolated instances of strong/gusty winds for the next couple
of hours. This isolated severe threat should diminish later this
evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Widespread convective overturning has occurred over much of IL
today. The overall severe threat should continue to diminish over
the Midwest this evening, but isolated strong to damaging winds may
still occur in the short term near St. Louis, and across parts of IN
and vicinity. 5% wind probabilities have been confined to locations
along/ahead of ongoing storms where a marginal severe threat
persists for another hour or so.
Elsewhere, severe hail/wind probabilities have been removed across
much of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and south FL. Occasional gusty
winds cannot be completely ruled out for the next hour or so with
ongoing storms across these regions. Regardless, nocturnal cooling
and a corresponding reduction in instability will result in a
lessening severe risk through the rest of the evening.
..Gleason.. 06/23/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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