Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 270056
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple
tornadoes are possible this evening in northeastern Illinois, far
northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and far northwest Ohio.
Other severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind damage may occur
from eastern Colorado into parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and
Iowa from this evening into the overnight period.
...Southern Great Lakes...
The latest radar imagery shows a well-developed line segment from
southern Lake Michigan extending southwestward into the Chicago
Metro area. According to water vapor imagery, the MCS is located
along the leading edge of large-scale ascent associated with a
shortwave trough moving into the western Great Lakes region. Ahead
of the line of severe storms, surface dewpoints are in the 65 to 70
F range and the RAP is estimating MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg. In
addition, the RAP has a 40 to 50 kt speed max across northern
Illinois which is supporting the linear MCS. As this line segment
moves quickly eastward across far northeastern Illinois, far
northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan over the next 3 to 4
hours, wind damage will be likely along the leading edge. Isolated
large hail could also occur with the more intense rotating cells
embedded in the line. The line of severe storms is expected to reach
western Lake Erie in the 03Z to 04Z timeframe and may produce
damaging wind gusts as far east as far northwest Pennsylvania.
...Central High Plains/Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri
Valley...
The latest radar imagery shows scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms from western Nebraska into eastern Colorado. These
storms were currently in a moderately unstable airmass where
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are favorable for a
severe threat. Large hail and wind damage may occur with supercells
and organized multicells. Further to the east into the central
Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley, low-level moisture is
greater than in the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints from
central Kansas to Iowa are generally in the 65 to 70 F range. This
is contributing to strong instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE as
high as 4000 J/kg in north-central Kansas. As the convection over
eastern Colorado and western Nebraska moves eastward into the
stronger instability, severe threat coverage is expected to increase
some as an MCS organizes...see MCD 1012. Large hail will continue to
be possible, especially with supercells that develop. Wind damage
may also occur with supercells and bowing line segments. Wind damage
may become the greater threat late this evening especially if linear
mode becomes dominant.
..Broyles.. 06/27/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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