SPC AC 290115

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0815 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

   Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...

   CORRECTED TO FLIP THUNDER LINE IN MAINE

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with a tornado threat, large hail, and damaging winds
   are possible this evening across parts of the northern Plains and
   the Upper Mississippi Valley. A wind damage threat will also exist
   in parts of the Carolinas and in southern New England early this
   evening.

   ...Northern Plains...
   The latest water vapor imagery shows southwest mid-level flow across
   the northern Plains with a subtle shortwave trough in the western
   Dakotas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough in western South
   Dakota. Other storms are ongoing in central and northern North
   Dakota on the northern edge of a pocket of strong instability. The
   WSR-88D VWP at Bismarck has 0-6 km shear near 35 kt and forecast
   soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be favorable
   for isolated supercells with large hail. A wind damage threat will
   also be possible with short line segments...see MCD 1041 and 1043. A
   tornado can not be ruled out in northern North Dakota early this
   evening on the western edge of a 30 to 40 kt low-level speed max.

   ...Upper Mississippi Valley...
   The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough in the Upper
   Mississippi Valley. A band of strong to severe thunderstorms is
   ongoing near the trough in eastern Minnesota. The storms are located
   along the northern edge of moderate instability where surface
   dewpoints are in the lower 70s F. In addition, the RAP shows 0-6 km
   shear in the 30 to 40 kt range across parts of southeast Minnesota.
   This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates, evident on forecast
   soundings, will support isolated supercells with large hail. A
   tornado can not be ruled out with any supercell that is dominant.
   Wind damage will also be possible along the stronger parts of the
   broken line of storms...see MCD 1044. A severe threat with large
   hail and wind damage will also be possible further southwest across
   southern Minnesota and northern Iowa later this evening where
   additional thunderstorms are expected to develop.

   ...Carolinas...
   The latest radar imagery shows a line of strong to severe
   thunderstorms from far southern North Carolina extending
   west-southwestward across central South Carolina. South of this line
   of storms, surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s F with MLCAPE in
   the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is relatively
   weak, the thermodynamic profile should be enough for am isolated
   wind damage threat. The wind damage threat could continue for a
   couple more hours before instability decreases.

   ...Southern New England...
   The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough across
   western New England. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the trough
   from New Hampshire southward into eastern Massachusetts. The airmass
   ahead of these storms appears to be weakly unstable which has been
   affected by convective outflow. Although the thermodynamic
   environment is not as favorable for severe storms, a marginal wind
   damage threat will still exist with the stronger multicells for
   another hour or two.

   ..Broyles.. 06/29/2020

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