Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
81,814
926,441
Sioux Falls, SD...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Norfolk, NE...Aberdeen, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
125,144
2,325,678
Sioux Falls, SD...Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...Bismarck, ND...Grand Island, NE...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
104,461
1,540,909
Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Bismarck, ND...Grand Island, NE...Minot, ND...
5 %
126,562
2,639,456
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Fargo, ND...
SPC AC 301603
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020
Valid 301630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail are possible this
afternoon through tonight across parts of eastern Nebraska, the
Dakotas and western Minnesota/Iowa.
...Northern Plains...
A persistent upper low remains centered over ID today, with
moderately strong and deep southerly flow across the
central/northern Rockies and northern Plains. A large cluster of
thunderstorms has been affecting western ND this morning, providing
abundant clouds/precipitation, and limiting heating/destabilization
across the region. There is limited confidence whether this area
can recover from morning storms and pose an afternoon/evening threat
of severe storms. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT risk, but portions
of western/central ND may be removed in later outlooks.
Farther south, strong heating will lead to a very unstable air mass
across portions of southeast ND/SD/NE, with forecast soundings
showing MLCAPE values of 3500-5000 J/kg. A shortwave trough
currently rotating around the base of the low across WY/CO will
approach the corridor of strong CAPE by late afternoon, resulting in
rather widespread thunderstorm development. Initial storms may be
supercellular, but it appears activity will rapidly evolve into
multiple linear structures capable of damaging winds and some hail.
These storms will likely persist through much of the night as they
spread eastward into parts of western MN/IA.
...TX...
Similar to yesterday, hot surface temperatures exceeding 100F are
expected along the dryline that will extend from the San Angelo area
into southwest OK. East of the dryline, near dry-adiabatic low/mid
level lapse rates and dewpoints near 70F will yield extreme CAPE
values. Forcing is weak. But thermal circulations along the
dryline may result in isolated thunderstorms for a few hours late
this afternoon and early evening. Those storms that form may
produce locally damaging wind gusts and hail.
...Mid MS Valley...
Water vapor imagery shows a remnant MCV north of St Louis. There is
a corridor to the south of the MCV from southeast MO into western
KY/TN where strong heating and significant destabilization is
occurring. This area is likely to see scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Vertical shear is weak, suggesting
activity will be chaotic and weakly organized. But large CAPE
values and steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk of
locally gusty/damaging winds.
..Hart/Wendt.. 06/30/2020
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