Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
254,338
20,629,835
Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
141,017
8,113,858
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...St. Louis, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...
SPC AC 010531
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...SOUTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible from mid afternoon
into early evening in parts of the central Plains, mid Mississippi
Valley, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, eastern North Carolina, northern
Rockies and northern High Plains.
...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A very moist airmass will be in place across much of the
south-central U.S. today. A large area with surface dewpoints in the
70s F will be located from the central Plains southeastward into the
lower to mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, moderate to strong
instability will be in place across most of the moist airmass, with
model forecasts showing MLCAPE generally ranging from 2500 to 4500
J/kg. Thunderstorm development will be most likely this afternoon
from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into parts of the
Southeast along a northwest-to-southeast gradient of instability.
Although deep-layer shear along this corridor is forecast to be
weak, steep low-level lapse rates may result in strong outflow gusts
with cells that develop in areas that strongly destabilize. The
threat should be concentrated mostly in the late afternoon and early
evening.
...Mid-Atlantic/Eastern North Carolina...
An upper-level low will move slowly northeastward across New England
today. An upper-level trough associated with the slow-moving system
will extend south-southwestward along the Eastern Seaboard. A pocket
of moderate instability is expected to develop near the trough this
afternoon from eastern North Carolina into eastern Virginia. As this
destabilization occurs, thunderstorms should initiate in the higher
terrain of the central Appalachians. This convection is forecast to
move southeastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late
afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear
and steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal
wind-damage threat with the better-organized line segments.
...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the
northwestern U.S. today as southwest mid-level flow remains over the
northern Rockies and northern High Plains. A corridor of instability
is expected to develop by afternoon just ahead of the trough across
southwest and central Montana. Although instability should remain
weak in most areas, strong large-scale ascent should support
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Moderate deep-layer
shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will probably be enough
for an isolated wind-damage and hail threat late this afternoon.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 07/01/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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