SPC AC 011600

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

   Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   MONTANA...WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today into this evening
   over parts of the northern Rockies, the Mid-Mississippi Valley,
   parts of southern Georgia/Alabama, west-central Texas, and the
   mid-Atlantic region.

   ...Mid MS Valley...
   A relatively long-lived MCS continues to track southeastward across
   MO at around 30 knots.  The leading edge of the convection is moving
   into an axis of moderate/strong instability, where MLCAPE values
   will be over 3000 J/kg this afternoon.  Continued redevelopment
   along the leading edge of the cold pool, coupled with the degree of
   instability, will pose a risk of intensification later today.  Wind
   fields are weak, suggesting the overall severe threat will remain
   rather isolated/marginal.  However, locally gusty/damaging wind
   gusts are possible as storms track into parts of northeast AR,
   western KY/TN, and northwest MS.

   ...AL/GA...
   Another remnant MCV and associated weakly-organized MCS is moving
   across eastern AL and western GA.  Strong heating ahead of this
   system, coupled with 20-30 knots of 700-500mb flow shown on regional
   VADs and RAP guidance suggest the potential for a few gusty/damaging
   wind reports with this activity through the afternoon.

   ...Mid Atlantic...
   Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form over the Chesapeake Bay
   and eastern MD.  Other storms are expected through the afternoon
   over the region as daytime heating and slightly cooler temperatures
   aloft promote convective development.  MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg
   and sufficient westerly flow at mid/upper levels may result in
   isolated strong/severe storms capable of gusty winds.

   ...TX...
   Similar to the last couple of days, strong heating and ample CAPE
   will develop along the surface dryline over west-central TX.  This
   will likely result in a 2-3 hour window of thunderstorm activity. 
   Mid-level winds are becoming progressively weaker each day, which
   should limit convective organization and overall severe threat. 
   Nevertheless, isolated strong storms are possible - mainly from
   22-01z.

   ...MT...
   A persistent upper trough remains over the northwest US today, with
   several weaker shortwave troughs rotating across the Great Basin and
   northern Rockies.  Relatively strong heating, sufficient mid-level
   moisture, and cool temperatures aloft will promote the development
   of afternoon thunderstorms over southwest MT.  Low level moisture
   and CAPE are weak, but a few organized cells may form and produce
   hail and gusty winds.  Storms are expected to develop northeastward
   toward the Saskatchewan border by evening.

   ..Hart/Wendt.. 07/01/2020

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