SPC AC 020054

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0754 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

   Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST TEXAS...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND FOR
   SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible this
   evening across parts of western Kansas, southwest Texas, and eastern
   North Carolina.  A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
   overnight from parts of southeast Kansas into the Ozarks.

   ...Synopsis...
   Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale trough over the Pacific
   Northwest with a series of smaller-scale disturbances rotating
   through the base of the trough.  A blocking pattern featuring a
   ridge farther east over the Great Lakes/MS Valley is located west of
   a closed mid-level low over southern New England.  Through tonight,
   little movement of the large-scale features is forecast.

   ...Western KS...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms have developed over western KS late
   this afternoon aided in part by a moist/unstable boundary layer.  As
   diurnal heating wanes early this evening and convective inhibition
   increases, storms will likely weaken and diminish by the mid evening
   hours.  Until then, large hail and severe gusts are possible with
   the stronger cores.  Reference MCD #1075.

   ...Southwest TX...
   Early this evening convective outflow from several areas of
   high-based convection will continue to collide and serve as a focus
   for thunderstorm development early this evening.  Marginally severe
   hail and isolated severe gusts are the main threats before this
   activity weakens during the evening.

   ...Eastern NC...
   The trailing portion of a weak disturbance, rotating through the
   base of the New England closed low, will likely continue to support
   thunderstorm activity through the late evening across eastern NC and
   the adjacent Gulf Stream waters.  Isolated damaging gusts are the
   primary risk but the intensity and coverage of damaging gusts will
   likely dwindle during the evening as the low-levels slowly cool near
   the coast.

   ...Southeast KS into the Ozarks overnight...
   A trailing boundary oriented from southeast to northwest may serve
   as a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight.  A
   very moist and moderately unstable airmass will conditionally
   support a marginal hail and severe gust risk tonight.

   ..Smith.. 07/02/2020

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