Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
10,115
36,851
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
5 %
111,614
861,911
Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...
SPC AC 030017
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
KANSAS INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will persist
during the evening from Kansas northward into the Dakotas. Severe
gusts are the primary severe hazard.
...KS northward into the Dakotas...
Scattered thunderstorms ongoing this evening will likely persist for
a couple more hours into the late evening with the more
organized/cold pool-driven clusters. A moderately to very unstable
airmass sampled by area 00z soundings (3700 J/kg MLCAPE at North
Platte, NE) will support mainly organized multicells. Severe gusts
(60-75 mph) are the primary hazard. The potential for severe gusts
may linger late into the evening with weakening/collapsing
convection owing in part to the 8 to 9 deg C/km 700-500mb lapse
rates sampled from Bismarck, ND south to Dodge City, KS this
evening. The lack of an appreciable southerly LLJ this evening into
the overnight as convection moves east towards more influence of the
mid-level ridge, suggests storms will likely weaken during the
mid-late evening as the boundary layer cools.
...North TX...
Two separate thunderstorm clusters over north TX will possibly pose
a risk for severe gusts through 9pm CDT. However, the gradual
expansion of convective outflow and overturned air will increasingly
confine the localized severe risk. In the meantime, steep low-level
lapse rates and evaporatively cooled downdrafts will support a
threat for 60 mph gusts before this activity dissipates by mid
evening.
..Smith.. 07/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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