Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
95,258
925,767
Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...Aberdeen, SD...
SPC AC 050540
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern
Plains Sunday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
across the central and southern High Plains as well as portions of
New England.
...Northern Plains...
Several weak disturbances are expected eject across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains during the day1 period. One feature
is currently responsible for scattered strong storms along the MT/ND
border. This activity is forecast to track into central ND by 05/12z
ahead of the progressive short-wave trough. While gusty winds and
marginally severe hail may be observed with this early-day
convection, stronger updrafts are possible later in the afternoon as
boundary layer warms ahead of the convective debris. Latest model
guidance suggests a surface front will advance into the central
Dakotas by sunrise, then slowly migrate east/south during the
afternoon. This boundary is expected to be the primary focus for
potential robust thunderstorm development after peak heating.
Forecast soundings ahead of the front exhibit substantial
instability with modest shear that should support robust, organized
updrafts. CAMs are in general agreement that scattered convection
will develop along the frontal zone from eastern ND - central SD -
northeast WY. This activity could grow upscale during the evening as
LLJ strengthens across the NE Panhandle into central SD. Hail/wind
should be the primary threats.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Diurnal heating will once again prove instrumental in afternoon
thunderstorm development. An apparent weak upper vort is currently
located over central CO. This feature is forecast to shift southeast
toward the TX Panhandle, and convection will likely be more
concentrated across the southern High Plains in advance of this
disturbance. Isolated severe wind gusts are the primary threat.
...New England...
Notable mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to approach northern
New England during the day. Low-level convergence is not expected to
be particularly focused ahead of the short wave, but a weak boundary
should settle to near the international border by 18z, then advance
to near the Atlantic Coast by 06z. A narrow corridor of stronger
low-level heating should be noted near the wind shift, and this is
expected to aid buoyancy for potentially robust thunderstorms. Have
extended 5% severe probs northeast along this boundary to account
for somewhat greater risk for gusty winds/small hail with this
activity. Otherwise, stronger buoyancy across southern New England
is expected to support isolated severe thunderstorms by 21z. These
storms will spread southeast during the evening with mainly a wind
threat.
..Darrow/Moore.. 07/05/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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