Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
76,833
772,612
Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...Aberdeen, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
106,335
988,068
Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...Aberdeen, SD...
SPC AC 060048
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across the
Northern Plains, including northeast Wyoming to the Dakotas and
northwest Minnesota.
...Northern Plains...
An apparent low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across
southern MT this evening. Convection is responding to this feature
downstream per vis satellite imagery. It appears several
deepening/expanding glaciated updrafts over south-central MT should
continue to progress along the WY/MT border region, just north of
the front that has settled south of the Black Hills. Other scattered
storms are spreading across northeast WY toward western SD, and this
activity is likely influenced by the approaching short wave as well.
Downstream, scattered, less focused storms extend along a diffuse
frontal zone from central SD into northwest MN. Strongest updrafts
remain capable of generating hail along with gusty winds.
...Southern New England...
Scattered convection has gradually congealed within northwest flow
ahead of a mid-level short-wave trough. 00z sounding from CHH does
not sample the inflow air mass well, though modest lapse rates are
noted within the 1-4km layer. Upstream, 00z sounding from ALB is
likely more representative with roughly 800 J/kg SBCAPE. Radar data
suggests several clusters of storms over southern NH may be
producing small hail and gusty winds. this activity will likely
spread toward the Atlantic Coast before weakening appreciably, hence
the decision to maintain 5% severe probs across southern New
England.
..Darrow.. 07/06/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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