Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Arlington, VA...Sioux Falls, SD...Alexandria, VA...
MARGINAL
191,500
12,878,175
Philadelphia, PA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...Green Bay, WI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,401
156,992
Rapid City, SD...Spearfish, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...Sturgis, SD...Belle Fourche, SD...
2 %
25,414
51,564
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
125,463
13,621,841
Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Arlington, VA...Sioux Falls, SD...Alexandria, VA...
5 %
196,559
12,611,520
Philadelphia, PA...Richmond, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...Green Bay, WI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
15,575
170,713
Rapid City, SD...Spearfish, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...Sturgis, SD...Belle Fourche, SD...
15 %
106,018
1,144,932
Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Rapid City, SD...Norfolk, NE...Brookings, SD...
SPC AC 070036
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the
northern/central Plains tonight. Isolated severe will also continue
this evening across the Middle Atlantic.
...Middle Atlantic...
A large cluster of disorganized thunderstorms has evolved over the
Middle Atlantic this evening. A significant cold pool has formed
beneath this cluster of storms which has stabilized much of
NJ/eastern PA and southern NY. Air mass remains fairly unstable
along a corridor from south-central PA to southern MD and this
should be the zone where the strongest convection persists for the
next several hours. Isolated damaging winds remain the primary
threat.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Several long-lived supercells are tracking southeast across the
northern High Plains this evening. Favorable east-southeasterly
low-level inflow is noted ahead of this activity over southeast MT
to the northern slopes of the Black Hills. Scattered severe should
continue southeast this evening, aided in part by an increasing LLJ
that should focus into south-central SD by 06z. CAMs suggest this
convection may propagate toward southeast SD by sunrise. Otherwise,
a small cluster of severe is spreading slowly south across northeast
NE. 00z sounding from OAX was modestly unstable with relatively
steep lapse rates. It's not entirely clear how far this activity
will propagate, so severe probs will be adjusted to account for some
uncertainty ahead of this convection.
..Darrow.. 07/07/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
