Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
57,418
99,018
Havre, MT...Miles City, MT...Lewistown, MT...Glendive, MT...
2 %
184,260
1,912,882
Billings, MT...Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Great Falls, MT...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 071612
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of intense damaging winds, large hail and a
few tornadoes are expected from central Montana eastward across the
northern Plains and into Minnesota, today into tonight.
...Northern Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving across parts
of ID/NV toward the northern Plains. This system will begin
affecting the mountains over western MT/WY by early afternoon with
showers and thunderstorm development likely. Storms will develop
eastward into the adjacent high Plains of central MT by
mid-afternoon, where backed low-level winds will maintain 50s
dewpoints and MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear and
veering winds with height will promote supercell storms capable of
very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. As the
storms spread eastward this evening, activity should become more
widespread. Multiple convective clusters are expected, with an
increasing risk of corridors of enhanced wind damage. Activity is
expected to persist much of the night, tracking across ND and into
northern MN by Wednesday morning.
...Western SD into NE/CO/NM...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form along the
instability axis from the Black Hills region southward into parts
the NE panhandle, eastern CO and northeast NM. Shear profiles on
the northern end of this corridor will be sufficient for a few
severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds. However, weak
flow aloft, warm mid-level temperatures, and lack of upper forcing
suggest that the severe threat over the remainder of the area will
be very isolated and chaotic.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/07/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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