Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...
MARGINAL
60,367
527,600
Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...Fergus Falls, MN...Pierre, SD...Bemidji, MN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
83,890
326,821
Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...Miles City, MT...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...
5 %
60,359
517,117
Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...Fergus Falls, MN...Pierre, SD...Bemidji, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
129,242
997,340
Fargo, ND...Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Minot, ND...
5 %
53,157
325,248
Aberdeen, SD...Fergus Falls, MN...Pierre, SD...Spearfish, SD...Wahpeton, ND...
SPC AC 080042
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe squall line with damaging winds will move across eastern
Montana into North Dakota later this evening. Isolated severe
thunderstorms are also possible across South Dakota.
...Northern Plains...
Mature squall line, extending at least 225 mi, is surging
east-northeast at 40-45kt across eastern MT. This activity has
organized ahead of a strong short-wave trough that will eject across
ND into southeast MB by sunrise. 00z sounding from GGW exhibited
strong shear with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. With a reservoir of
moderate instability extending just downstream into the western
Dakotas, there is reason to believe this linear MCS will progress
steadily across the northern Plains ahead of the short wave. Other
high-based storms have developed across the NE Panhandle into
southwest SD. This activity is likely producing locally strong winds
as well. Severe winds will be the main threat with convection the
rest of tonight.
..Darrow.. 07/08/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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