Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
59,876
3,262,894
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Duluth, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
187,133
7,597,909
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Duluth, MN...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
134,376
5,440,642
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Duluth, MN...Bloomington, MN...
5 %
124,952
2,171,447
Fargo, ND...Sioux City, IA...Eau Claire, WI...Rapid City, SD...Lakeville, MN...
SPC AC 080525
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are possible from the central
Plains to the upper Mississippi Valley. A few strong storms may also
be noted across parts of the Northeast.
...Central Plains to Upper MS Valley...
Lead mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across ND early this
morning. A well-organized MCS should track across ND into northern
MN by daybreak. Isolated damaging winds may still be occurring with
this feature at the start of the period, though it will quickly
spread across northern MN and weaken during the late morning.
Trailing this lead feature, a secondary upper trough should advance
into the western Dakotas by 09/00z. This will encourage the surface
front to advance into western MN, arcing southwest into the NE
Panhandle by late afternoon. Renewed convection is likely along the
wind shift as boundary layer warms and destabilizes. Forecast shear
across the upper MS Valley supports some supercell threat and
hail/wind can be expected with this diurnally driven activity.
Across the central Plains, strong surface heating across the High
Plains from west TX into southwestern NE will result in convective
temperatures being breached by 23z; however, post-frontal upslope
flow across NE into southeast WY should encourage convection to
develop a few hours earlier. This activity will also be supported
along the southern fringe of the aforementioned trough as it
progresses into the northern Plains. While deep-layer flow is not
that strong, veering winds with height should support weak
supercells. Latest thinking is scattered storms will grow upscale
into an MCS over NE during the evening, then begin to propagate
southeast in line with latest CAMs. Convection may spread into
southeast KS by the end of the period as mid-level flow becomes more
northwesterly during the latter half of the period. Hail may be
noted early in the convective cycle, but damaging winds will be more
common after the MCS evolves.
...Northeast...
Southern fringe of QC short-wave trough will affect New England by
mid day. At the surface, a weak southwest/northeast-oriented surface
boundary should focus potential convective development.
Thunderstorms should develop fairly early, possibly by 16z as
temperatures warm through the 70s to near 80F. Locally damaging
winds are the primary threat with this activity.
..Darrow/Moore.. 07/08/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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