Minneapolis, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...Coon Rapids, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
40,128
910,698
Lincoln, NE...Manhattan, KS...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...
30 %
38,736
913,331
Lincoln, NE...Manhattan, KS...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...Hastings, NE...
15 %
168,241
9,013,067
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...
SPC AC 090038
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain likely this evening and tonight across
parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. Damaging
wind and large hail are the primary threats, through a couple of
tornadoes are possible through mid evening.
...Central Plains...
Thunderstorms are in the process of developing along a slow-moving
cold front from southeast SD through northern NE and some distance
south along a pre-frontal trough. The atmosphere is very unstable in
this region with very steep 8-8.5 C/km lapse rates and 3000-4000
J/kg MLCAPE. This area resides just south of the stronger mid to
upper westerlies, but effective bulk shear from 30-40 kt will
support both multicell and some supercell structures with initial
discrete storms. Some increase in hodograph size will occur as the
low-level jet strengthens, and a small window will exist for a
landspout or brief tornado or two this evening, but large hail and
downburst winds are the primary threats. A strengthening southerly
low-level jet will foster the development of additional storms that
will likely evolve into an organized MCS. This activity will advance
south and southeast through the central Plains tonight with primary
severe threat transitioning to damaging wind.
...Upper Midwest...
Storms are currently developing across MN in vicinity of a cold
front as well as in association with a northeast-advancing MCV. The
atmosphere is very unstable in this region with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE
along with 25-35 kt effective bulk shear. Some increase in low-level
hodograph size will occur as the low-level jet strengthens and a
brief tornado or two remain possible as storms move northeast and
interact with warm front. However, damaging wind and large hail will
remain the primary threats before activity weakens later tonight.
..Dial.. 07/09/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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