Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Chicago, IL...Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Des Moines, IA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
296,515
19,291,257
Milwaukee, WI...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Madison, WI...
SPC AC 090557
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail are possible over a
portion of the central and southern Plains, the lower Mississippi
Valley as well as the upper Midwest today into tonight.
...Southeast Kansas through central and eastern Oklahoma into the
lower Mississippi Valley...
MCS will be ongoing most likely over far southeast KS to southwest
MO by 12Z this morning. These storms will pose an ongoing threat for
strong to damaging wind gusts as they develop southeast through the
moderately unstable atmosphere across eastern OK into northwest AR
before eventually weakening as they shift southeast of the low-level
jet and stronger winds aloft. Additional storms might initiate along
the outflow boundary across AR as the surface layer destabilizes,
and these could also pose a risk for strong to damaging wind gusts
during the afternoon.
...Central High Plains...
A cold front will advance slowly south through the central Plains
during the day. Easterly low-level upslope flow will become
established in the post frontal region with dewpoints in the 60s F
advecting westward beneath steep mid-level lapse rates supporting a
corridor of moderate instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) over the
central High Plains. The atmosphere will likely remain capped to
surface based storms most of the day, especially given weak upper
forcing. However, at least isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible in this regime where 45+ kt effective bulk shear and a
favorable thermodynamic environment will support potential for
supercells. Large hail will be the initial main threat, but some
upscale growth might occur which will augment damaging wind
potential.
...Upper Midwest...
MCV from last night's storms will drift into the upper Midwest today
where the atmosphere will likely become moderately unstable with up
to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will likely redevelop along
southeast-advancing cold front and residual outflow boundaries. Weak
vertical wind profiles will support multicells, possibly evolving
into lines and clusters capable of isolated strong to damaging wind
gusts during the afternoon.
..Dial/Moore.. 07/09/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
| 
)
