Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
MARGINAL
122,359
3,411,751
Wichita, KS...Des Moines, IA...Columbia, MO...West Des Moines, IA...Joplin, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
54,238
658,652
Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...Norfolk, NE...Hastings, NE...Columbus, NE...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
34,162
184,876
Norfolk, NE...
30 %
34,559
186,573
Norfolk, NE...
15 %
150,852
5,281,950
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
5 %
122,477
3,416,057
Wichita, KS...Des Moines, IA...Columbia, MO...West Des Moines, IA...Joplin, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
24,177
85,125
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
30 %
21,028
69,764
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
15 %
135,339
2,554,938
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Rapid City, SD...
5 %
136,187
5,840,373
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
SPC AC 110102
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
SD INTO CENTRAL NE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will remain possible for much of tonight across
portions of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail and
damaging wind are the primary threats.
...Northern/central Plains...
Multiple supercell clusters ongoing at 01Z across the
northern/central Plains are expected to persist for a few hours this
evening, with a continued risk of large hail and damaging wind. The
intense long-lived cluster moving into north-central KS should
eventually weaken as it encounters an environment that has been
stabilized by earlier widespread convection over southern KS and OK.
Further north, in closer proximity to a midlevel shortwave trough,
ongoing clusters will likely be longer lived as they move
southeastward with time. Upscale growth into a larger MCS remains
possible into central/eastern NE late tonight, though the
southeastward extent of the severe threat into parts of eastern
KS/western MO remains uncertain, due to the aforementioned
stabilizing influence of earlier convection to the south.
...Southern New England...
Deep convection is largely absent this evening in association with
Tropical Storm Fay. While low-level flow/shear north and east of the
center remains sufficient to support a conditional threat of a brief
tornado or locally damaging wind gust, this threat will remain quite
limited given the lack of deeper convection.
..Dean.. 07/11/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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