Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Nashville, TN...Kansas City, MO...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
45,969
4,123,656
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Peoria, IL...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
48,837
3,662,300
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...
30 %
45,144
3,619,137
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Fort Smith, AR...
Oklahoma City, OK...St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Springfield, MO...Springfield, IL...
5 %
173,571
12,194,895
Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Plano, TX...Des Moines, IA...
SPC AC 120100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and severe gusts
are expected this evening for parts of southeastern Kansas,
Oklahoma, and western Arkansas with severe gusts becoming the
primary hazard into the overnight.
...Southern Great Plains into the Arklatex...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level anticyclone centered over the
southern Rockies this evening. A belt of moderate northwesterly
flow will continue to move southeast across the OK vicinity this
evening. Early evening surface analysis and regional 00z observed
sounding data indicate an extremely moist/unstable airmass across
much of OK/western AR ahead several clusters of storms from the
OK/TX Panhandles east into southeast KS. Large to very large hail
will accompany the stronger cores through mid evening before
additional storm mergers/outflow promote upscale growth into 1 or 2
severe-wind producing clusters moving southeast. It appears the
greatest risk for severe gusts will encompass eastern OK this
evening and possibly reach the Arklatex late tonight. Wind gusts
60-80 mph are possible with the more intense downdrafts this evening
and this risk will eventually focus near bowing segments forecast to
evolve later this evening.
...Mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley...
Water-vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over the
Upper Midwest moving southeast towards the southwest Great Lakes. A
moist/unstable airmass, constricted spatially by ongoing
thunderstorms/outflow over the lower OH Valley and a drier airmass
near the Appalachians, will support strong/severe thunderstorms this
evening primarily capable of a risk for severe/damaging gusts.
Large hail may occur with the more intense cores but further upscale
growth will favor a couple of bands moving southeast this evening.
Have enlarged the area of 5% wind probabilities farther
east/southeast over parts of KY/TN for the possibility of at least a
few strong thunderstorms persisting late tonight with the ongoing OH
Valley thunderstorm cluster.
...Upstate NY and southern New England...
A compact mid-level shortwave trough will continue to migrate
northeast this evening across NY. The risk for a few strong,
perhaps locally damaging gusts may persist through mid evening
before diurnal stabilization leads to storms weakening and the risk
diminishing.
..Smith.. 07/12/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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