Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
27,076
73,720
Lamar, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
72,974
422,706
Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...Dumas, TX...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
25,855
128,035
Lamar, CO...
5 %
96,902
607,165
Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Hays, KS...
SPC AC 130059
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to
continue this evening across parts of the central and southern High
Plains.
...Central and southern High Plains...
A weak disturbance moving across the central Rockies into the
central High Plains this evening will likely continue to support
thunderstorm development this evening into the overnight. Very
steep low-level lapse rates, implied by very large surface
temp-dewpoint spreads, will favor at least an isolated risk for
severe gusts this evening. Adequate deep-layer shear for storm
organization (sampled by the 7pm CDT North Platte, NE observed
sounding) and steep 700-500mb lapse rates will favor large hail with
the stronger cores mainly this evening. A transition to primarily a
threat for severe gusts will gradually occur this evening into the
overnight as activity over the High Plains moves/develops east into
the Panhandles and central KS/northwest OK later tonight.
...Central Gulf Coast...
A broken band of storms moving south towards the Gulf Coast will
move offshore and likely weaken by the mid-late evening. However, a
very moist/unstable airmass immediately near the coast will support
a risk for wet microbursts capable of isolated wind damage through
9-10pm CDT before storms weaken and move offshore into the northern
Gulf.
...TN into southern WV...
A mid-level shortwave trough evident on water-vapor imagery this
evening over the Upper OH Valley will continue to progress eastward
across the central Appalachians overnight. A few strong to locally
severe thunderstorms are possible this evening before storms
gradually weaken and a localized wind damage risk diminishes.
...Eastern MT/western ND...
Low-level warm air advection is forecast to strengthen later this
evening ahead of an eastward migrating shortwave trough over the
southern Canadian Rockies/northern ID. Isolated thunderstorms will
likely develop late this evening into tonight. Steep lapse rates
sampled by the Rapid City observed sounding suggest the possibility
for mainly hail/wind could accompany the stronger cores. Please
reference MCD #1205 for short-term details.
..Smith.. 07/13/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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