Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
14,326
571,303
St. Cloud, MN...Willmar, MN...Brainerd, MN...Sartell, MN...Bemidji, MN...
2 %
28,431
614,556
North Platte, NE...Elk River, MN...Ramsey, MN...St. Michael, MN...Buffalo, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
29,943
214,120
Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Lexington, NE...
30 %
59,718
668,604
St. Cloud, MN...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Brainerd, MN...Sartell, MN...
15 %
110,375
4,524,005
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Bloomington, MN...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
15,318
96,228
North Platte, NE...
15 %
108,299
1,511,768
Sioux Falls, SD...St. Cloud, MN...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Willmar, MN...
5 %
133,032
5,666,647
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Amarillo, TX...Duluth, MN...Sioux City, IA...
SPC AC 140036
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from the central High Plains into
parts of the Upper Midwest tonight. Severe gusts, possibly
significant, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the threats
with the stronger storms.
...01z Update...
Large-scale 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the
northern Plains/Upper MS Valley tonight ahead of a pronounced upper
trough. Early-evening vis satellite imagery suggests frontal cu
field is deepening across western MN. With time scattered
thunderstorms should develop south along this boundary before
spreading east tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
few tornadoes remain possible.
Farther south, deep convection is expanding across the central High
Plains as it spreads east into a corridor of high instability
characterized by 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Stronger updrafts will
generate large hail, possibly in excess of 2 inches across western
KS and southwest NE. Otherwise, damaging winds should become more
common once a squall line emerges downstream.
..Darrow.. 07/14/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
