Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...St. Joseph, MO...Waterloo, IA...Ames, IA...
MARGINAL
176,164
12,377,581
Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
17,138
1,168,354
Des Moines, IA...Waterloo, IA...Ames, IA...West Des Moines, IA...Cedar Falls, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
33,141
255,816
Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Liberal, KS...Woodward, OK...Guymon, OK...
15 %
94,823
2,713,827
Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...St. Joseph, MO...Waterloo, IA...Ames, IA...
5 %
173,110
11,914,126
Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
55,766
1,694,955
Des Moines, IA...St. Joseph, MO...Waterloo, IA...Ames, IA...West Des Moines, IA...
5 %
182,298
11,898,917
Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
SPC AC 150110
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST CO
INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND FROM THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL WI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail will remain
possible this evening across the Upper Midwest from Iowa into
Wisconsin, and this evening across the south-central High Plains and
southeast Colorado and overnight into southwest Kansas and the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
...Central/southern High Plains...
At 01Z, an intense thunderstorm cluster with embedded supercells is
ongoing across southeast CO. This cluster should continue to
propagate east-southeastward into the mid/late evening, with a
continued risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. See MCD 1226 for
more information regarding the short-term threat this evening.
Another less-organized cluster has developed over the TX/OK
Panhandles, which will pose a severe wind threat potentially into
northwest OK/southwest KS.
Later tonight, some upscale growth remains possible as the primary
cluster moves into portions of southwest KS and the OK/TX
Panhandles. The intensity of this cluster with time remains
uncertain, as it moves into a region of increasingly strong
surface-based inhibition (00Z 700 mb temperatures of 17C at DDC and
20C at AMA). The longevity of the severe threat will depend on the
level of mesoscale organization the system can attain prior to
encountering the strongly capped environment, but some risk of
severe wind gusts will likely persist into at least a portion of
southwest KS and the OK/northern TX Panhandles.
...Mid-MO Valley into IA/WI...
Thunderstorms ongoing from IA into central WI at 01Z will continue
to pose a threat of primarily large hail and locally damaging wind
gusts for a few hours this evening, with a gradual weakening trend
expected with time as surface-based CINH increases. Additional
thunderstorm development remains possible this evening further
southwest into northeast KS/southeast NE/northwest MO, near and just
north of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Any additional
development would also pose a hail/wind risk for a time this
evening. Late tonight, elevated convection may develop within a
warm-advection regime, with steep midlevel lapse rates supporting
some lingering hail/wind gust threat.
..Dean.. 07/15/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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