SPC AC 160047

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

   Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND ADJACENT AREAS
   OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of
   southeastern Illinois and vicinity, with damaging winds, large hail,
   and a few tornadoes possible. Other severe storms are expected
   across the south-central High Plains this afternoon and evening.

   ...01Z Outlook Update...
   Much of the outlook has been updated per latest convective trends. 
   There still remains enough potential for a concentration of severe
   reports in southern/southeastern Illinois ahead of a quasi-linear
   MCS to support an Enhanced risk (driven by 30% wind probabilities)
   in that area.  Northern portions of the MCS will eventually reach
   more stable air over Indiana which should gradually lessen the
   severe threat in that area.  Meanwhile, low-level shear is maximized
   across south-central Illinois and vicinity, and a few cells may have
   a tendency to rotate and produce a couple of tornadoes.  These
   storms may also persist slightly longer into the night with moderate
   instability downstream over a broader area near the Ohio River.

   Farther south, convective overturning has led to a greatly
   diminished severe threat over much of Alabama and western Georgia. 
   A few cells from northeastern Mississippi through southeastern
   Louisiana are still thriving on a moderately to strongly unstable
   airmass and may result in sporadic wind/tree damage in a few areas. 
   5%/Marginal wind probabilities have been reconfigured to address the
   threat in these areas.

   Farther west, a couple of linear segments have evolved from
   southeastern Colorado into east-central New Mexico, and these
   complexes will forward-propagate eastward toward the
   Panhandles/southwestern Kansas tonight with an attendant wind/hail
   threat.  Severe probabilities remain unchanged for this scenario.

   ..Cook.. 07/16/2020

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