SPC AC 161930

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with damaging winds, isolated large hail, and perhaps
   a couple tornadoes remain possible this afternoon and evening from
   eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania and New York.  Large hail and
   damaging winds will also be possible late this afternoon into the
   evening across west-central Nebraska and the Arrowhead region of
   Minnesota.

   ...20Z Update...
   Aside from minor adjustments to the General Thunderstorm areas, no
   changes have been made to the previous outlook. A few severe
   thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon/evening, with the
   greatest relative risk across portions of eastern OH and western
   PA/NY, the Arrowhead region of MN, and western NE. See the previous
   discussion below for more details.

   ..Dean.. 07/16/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/

   ...Upper OH Valley...
   Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across
   Lower MI into OH.  Relatively strong southwesterly deep-layer winds
   are noted ahead of this feature, leading to favorable vertical shear
   profiles for organized convection over parts of eastern OH, western
   NY/PA, and northern WV.  Breaks in the clouds are resulting in
   relatively strong heating, with afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500
   J/kg expected.  Initial storms may rotate, with a general trend
   toward bowing clusters during the afternoon.  Damaging wind gusts
   appear to be the main threat, although isolated hail and a tornado
   or two are possible.  Eastward extent of the risk should be limited
   by more stable condition over central NY/OH.  Please refer to MCD
   #1240 for more details.

   ...MN...
   Fast westerly flow aloft is present today over MN.  A small cluster
   of thunderstorms near Bemidji is expected to intensify this
   afternoon as it tracks eastward toward the Arrowhead region. 
   Sufficient CAPE and vertical shear will likely result in a few
   strong/severe storms later today, with large hail and damaging winds
   possible.  

   ...NE...
   The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow resides across WY into
   NE today, with a minor shortwave trough noted over southeast WY. 
   Weak forcing associated with this feature, coupled with strong
   heating and moderate CAPE will lead to scattered thunderstorms this
   afternoon over the NE panhandle.  This activity will build eastward
   during the evening before weakening overnight.  The strongest storms
   will be capable of damaging wind gusts.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z