SPC AC 190047

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

   Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
   MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging thunderstorm gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes are
   possible tonight across portions of the Upper Midwest and Upper
   Great Lakes.

   ...01Z Outlook Update...
   Much of the outlook and severe probabilities in the upper Midwest
   are held intact with changes for this update tied to latest
   convective trends.  Primarily cellular convective development has
   evolved across portions of north-central MN, with an isolated
   supercell also noted earlier near/east of the Minneapolis/St. Paul
   Metro area.  CAMs and radar imagery suggest that a second band of
   storms will increase in coverage and intensity nearer the
   front/surface trough that bisects MN from NNE to SSW.  This activity
   may grow into a combination of cells and linear segments, posing a
   risk of all severe modes through the evening.  Isolated, more
   cellular convection may pose more of a tornado risk - especially as
   low-level shear ramps up early this evening in tandem with a
   developing 40-45 kt 850 hPa jet from Iowa into western Wisconsin.

   Elsewhere, convective overturning has decreased the marginal wind
   threat in the Carolinas, and severe probabilities have been removed.
    Portions of the central Plains will have an isolated wind risk with
   high-based storms and linear segments migrating through that area. 
   Lastly, the thunderstorm threat has diminished across ND, with only
   isolated storms posing a damaging wind-gust threat through sunset.

   ..Cook.. 07/19/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z