Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
20,443
124,586
Scottsbluff, NE...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Louisville, KY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
67,756
380,475
North Platte, NE...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Fort Morgan, CO...Torrington, WY...
5 %
314,969
38,704,577
Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...
SPC AC 191620
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail are possible today over
portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions and central Great
Plains.
...IL to OH...
A broken band of showers and thunderstorms extends from northern IL
eastward across southern Lower MI. This convective zone is ahead of
the primary surface cold front, but has become the effective zone of
lift/convergence. One fast-moving cluster of thunderstorms over
northern IL has developed a bowing structure, and poses the threat
of persistent strong/damaging winds as it moves eastward through the
Chicago area into northern IN and southwest Lower MI. Please refer
to MCD #1274 and WW #384 for further details.
Relatively strong heating/destabilization will likely result in
afternoon thunderstorms intensification along the convective
boundary from central IL/IN into southeast Lower MI and western OH.
Westerly flow aloft weakens with southward extent, but moderate CAPE
values will be sufficient for a few strong/severe wind gusts in the
stronger cells.
...Western NY...
Storms over Ontario will track eastward into parts of western NY
this afternoon, where strong heating is also occurring. Deep
westerly flow aloft and linear nature of convection suggest some
risk of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon, although models
vary on how far east convection remains strong. Please refer to MCD
#1275.
...Central Plains...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows low clouds eroding across
northeast CO and vicinity. A moist low-level air mass is present
here with dewpoints in the 60s and weak easterly/southeasterly low
level winds. Strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values over
northeast CO and eastern WY, leading to scattered thunderstorm
development. Activity will form by early afternoon over the
foothills of CO and spread eastward into instability axis, where a
few severe storms are expected to develop. Vertical shear is
marginal, suggesting that multicell storms capable of locally large
hail and gusty winds are possible. Storms will develop eastward
this evening into southeast SD/western NE/northwest KS with a
continued risk of hail/wind.
..Hart/Moore.. 07/19/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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