Rapid City, SD...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Hastings, NE...
MARGINAL
307,984
21,907,906
Indianapolis, IN...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Louisville, KY...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
31,160
200,985
Rapid City, SD...Scottsbluff, NE...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
77,204
633,803
Rapid City, SD...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...Hastings, NE...
5 %
306,829
21,819,542
Indianapolis, IN...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Louisville, KY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
66,325
459,137
North Platte, NE...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Lexington, NE...Torrington, WY...
5 %
198,964
9,733,515
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...St. Louis, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
SPC AC 200048
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible
this evening over the central and northern High Plains. A few strong
wind gusts also remain possible from the Ohio Valley into parts of
the Northeast.
...Black Hills into the Central Plains...
Strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail
currently extend from the Black Hills where deep-layer shear is most
favorable southward into the TX Panhandle where shear is weak. These
storms may eventually consolidate into larger clusters or an MCS
this evening as they persist southeastward across NE and KS.
...OH Valley into the Northeast...
Scattered storms persist with a warm, moist pre-frontal air mass
from the Midwest and OH Valley into the Northeast. A large outflow
boundary is currently shifting south into KY and eastward into WV,
but much of this convection is weakening. Stronger storms, however,
do persist into southern IL and IN where MLCAPE to 3000 J/kg
remains.
Farther northeast, sporadic clusters of storms remain ongoing from
northern PA into southeast NY, with forward motion aided by modest
westerlies aloft. With time, this activity should weaken due to time
of day. However, a few strong to severe wind gusts remain possible
through evening, especially over northern/central PA, while the NY
activity will soon encounter stable air to the east.
..Jewell.. 07/20/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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