Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 230058
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHEAST
OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
Only isolated strong storms are likely this evening over southern
New England, and from far northern California into southeast Oregon.
...Southern New England...
Thunderstorms that moved over the I-95 corridor produced significant
outflow, stabilizing much of the region. Pockets of better
instability remain over southern New England, ahead of a smattering
of storms. However, cooler/more stable air exists from RI/eastern MA
into ME. Therefore, only a small window exists in time and space for
an isolated severe storm, with a gradually decreasing threat
anticipated.
...Northern CA into southeast OR and northwest NV...
00Z soundings from the region weak depict winds aloft and only a few
hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Objective analysis indicates pockets of 500
J/kg MLCAPE may exist in between existing showers/storms. A few
stronger cores have been noted on radar over northern CA, with more
general thunderstorm activity extending eastward across NV. A few
hours of gusty wind potential remain, but the overall threat appears
low.
...Central Plains...
An earlier attempt at a severe storm over northwest KS has failed
along the dryline. Other sporadic cells have formed over parts of
northeast CO and southeast WY where surface winds are southeasterly,
with dewpoints in the 40s contributing to several hundred J/kg
MLCAPE. Given time of day and lack of large-scale lift, capping is
expected to increase with time. An isolated strong/severe cell
cannot be ruled out over the next few hours, with marginal hail or a
strong wind gust.
..Jewell.. 07/23/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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