Jul 24, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 24 01:02:19 UTC 2020 (20200724 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20200724 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20200724 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 44,255 235,109 Minot, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...Glendive, MT...Sidney, MT...
MARGINAL 175,469 64,573,440 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20200724 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 31,874 195,461 Minot, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...Sidney, MT...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20200724 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 44,452 235,547 Minot, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...Glendive, MT...Sidney, MT...
5 % 175,026 64,586,111 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20200724 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 44,356 231,952 Minot, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...Glendive, MT...Sidney, MT...
5 % 31,949 192,026 Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Devils Lake, ND...
   SPC AC 240102

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0802 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

   Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
   MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms remain possible this evening from far eastern
   Montana into North Dakota. Isolated strong storms may persist for a
   few hours over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, and from
   Idaho into southwest Montana.

   ...Northern Plains and Rockies...
   Scattered strong to severe storms persist near the wind shift over
   eastern MT, with isolated activity extending southeastward into
   western ND. The 00Z ABR sounding farther east shows strong
   instability, but with a cap below 700 mb.

   Lift will persist this evening as the shortwave trough moves across
   the area and the low-level jet strengthens and veers to
   southwesterly. While capping is a concern for storm coverage, the
   conditional threat of a severe storms remains high, with damaging
   hail or wind the most likely threat should additional storms form
   this evening. See mesoscale discussion 1325 for more information.

   ...Northeast and Mid Atlantic...
   Much of the air mass has been overturned by earlier convection, but
   pockets of moderate instability remain from MD into southern NY.
   Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible for a few hours until the
   boundary layer stabilizes.

   ..Jewell.. 07/24/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z