Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
313,822
8,519,100
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Fargo, ND...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
296,766
8,331,487
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Fargo, ND...
SPC AC 250603
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Upper Midwest and
northern Plains, with isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
Meanwhile, tropical cyclone Hanna may pose some risk for a couple of
tornadoes across south Texas as it reaches hurricane status and
moves inland later today.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will extend from the central Plains east/northeast
across the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic, with warm temperatures aloft.
Heights over the upper MS Valley will lower as an upper trough
swings east across SK/MB, with 40+ kt midlevel winds across ND near
the base of the trough.
At the surface, substantial low-level moisture will remain over a
large part of the Plains and MS Valley, contributing to modest
buoyancy despite warm temperatures aloft. The strongest instability
will develop over the northern Plains, where temperatures aloft will
be a bit cooler. Storms are likely to form near a surface trough,
which will deepen over the Dakotas during the day, and advance east
into MN overnight.
...Southern TX...
Hanna is forecast to become a hurricane later this morning,
affecting the TX Coast and then interior Deep South TX. Shear will
increase as the system deepens, with favorable SRH along and north
of the center track, although models differ with SRH magnitude.
Upper 70s dewpoints along with favorable low-level shear may support
isolated supercells within the convective bands, with brief
tornadoes possible.
...Northern Plains into the upper MS Valley...
Morning convection may be ongoing over parts of MN, with minimal
severe risk. As this activity departs to the northeast, outflow may
be left behind to serve as an afternoon focus for development, from
MN into SD. Other storms are likely to form extending southwest into
northern NE where heating will be stronger. The entire zone from NE
into MN will be near the 850 mb theta-e axis, and back-building
storms are possible. Marginal hail or isolated severe wind gusts may
occur. Other cells are possible during the afternoon near the
developing wind shift over the western Dakotas. Here, forecast
soundings show a deeply mixed boundary layer, with weak winds below
500 mb. Localized downbursts or marginal hail will be possible.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 07/25/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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