Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
18,240
920,515
Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Lake Jackson, TX...Kingsville, TX...Alice, TX...
2 %
12,948
5,047,058
Houston, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
15,284
71,484
Devils Lake, ND...
5 %
228,125
7,104,788
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
222,838
6,591,522
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
SPC AC 251937
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE TX COAST AND OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Hurricane Hanna may spawn a few tornadoes today and tonight over
parts of south Texas. Isolated severe gusts and hail are also
possible over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
...20Z Update...
...TX Coast...
Strong low-level flow around Hurricane Hanna supports robust 0-1 km
storm-relative helicity along the lower TX Coast. Recent CRP VAD
sampled 0-1 km storm-relative helicity of 450 m2/m2. Thus far, the
most of the more cellular deep convection has remained north of this
area. Overall instability will remain modest but the potential for a
few stronger, more persistent cells still exists. Any persistently
deep updrafts should be able to acquire rotation with a resulting
threat for a brief tornado.
...Central/Northern Plains...Upper Midwest...
Scattered thunderstorm development is still expected along a front
extending across the central/northern Plains over the next few
hours. Best potential for a few organized storms capable of gusty
winds remains over central ND. A strong storm or two also remains
possible later this afternoon into this evening across portions of
the Upper Midwest.
..Mosier.. 07/25/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020/
...TX...
Hurricane Hanna will move ashore over south TX early this evening.
As the system moves slowly westward, favorable vertical shear
profiles will move inland over the middle and lower TX Gulf Coast.
So far, convection has not shown consistent tendencies toward
rotating updrafts, and has been primarily outflow dominant. If that
changes, the potential will exist for a few tornadoes across the
SLGT risk area this afternoon and tonight.
...Central ND...
A surface cold front over eastern MT and northwest ND will sag
southeastward today, providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm
development. Southwesterly flow aloft is sufficient for a few
organized storms, with forecast soundings showing steep low-level
lapse rates - favorable for gusty/damaging convective winds. Have
opted to insert a small SLGT risk for this threat - primarily for
the 21-01z period.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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