Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
18,240
920,515
Corpus Christi, TX...Victoria, TX...Lake Jackson, TX...Kingsville, TX...Alice, TX...
2 %
12,957
5,047,058
Houston, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
29,537
234,210
Bismarck, ND...Mandan, ND...Jamestown, ND...Devils Lake, ND...Grafton, ND...
5 %
241,163
7,664,127
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Fargo, ND...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
248,272
7,317,782
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Fargo, ND...
SPC AC 260100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS COAST REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two remain possible this evening and overnight across
portions of the middle and lower Texas coastal areas, in conjunction
with the circulation of Hurricane Hanna over south Texas. Isolated
severe gusts and hail also remain possible this evening over parts
of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
...TX Coast...
Strong low-level flow around Hurricane Hanna continues to yield
favorable 0-1 km shear with respect to updraft rotation. Indeed,
occasionally rotating convective cells have been observed -- most
recently in the Jim Wells/Duval County area of south Texas in one of
the inner bands of Hanna.
Instability will remain modest through the rest of the period, but
the potential for rotation will continue within a few of the
stronger, more persistent cells overnight. As such, risk for a
couple of brief tornadoes will likewise continue through the rest of
the period, as Hanna drifts slowly west-southwestward. For
additional information regarding Hurricane Hanna, please refer to
the latest information from the National Hurricane Center..
...Central/Northern Plains...Upper Midwest...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing at this time from the central
High Plains northward to the Dakotas, and also over the Upper
Mississippi Valley area. Though a few locally damaging wind gusts
or large hail events will be possible this evening across this
region as a strengthening central Plains low-level jet sustains
convection, the greatest potential for severe weather remains over
North Dakota. Here, stronger shear -- aided by a belt of enhanced
mid-level flow -- will reside, supporting organized/sustained
updrafts. Damaging winds will be the primary risk as storms spread
eastward with time toward Minnesota.
..Goss.. 07/26/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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