Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 270539
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to isolated strong thunderstorms are expected from
northern New England southwestward across the Lower Great Lakes and
into the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by
local risk for gusty/potentially damaging winds.
...Synopsis...
An upper low centered over northeastern Manitoba/northwestern
Ontario early today is forecast to move slowly southeastward across
Ontario, with cyclonic flow surrounding the low forecast to expand
gradually into/across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region.
Upstream, ridging is expected over the Rockies, with weak troughing
over the West Coast states expected to begin advancing eastward into
the Intermountain region overnight.
At the surface, a cool front associated with the eastern Canada
low/trough is forecast to cross the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
area during the afternoon and evening, with the trailing portion of
this boundary to sag slowly southward into Oklahoma and northwest
Texas through the afternoon and evening. This boundary will focus
an expansive zone of convection from the Northeast to the southern
Rockies.
...Northern New England to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
As scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop in the
vicinity of the aforementioned cool front, relatively weak shear
should limit potential for organized/severe storms -- especially
from the Mississippi River area westward. Slightly
stronger/westerly flow aloft is progged from the Ohio Valley
northeastward -- mainly in the 20 to 30 kt range. This slightly
greater shear may be sufficient to promote a few stronger/multicell
storm clusters, capable of producing locally gusty winds and some
tree damage -- especially from mid afternoon through early evening.
Storm intensity should gradually diminish through the evening, with
the onset of diurnal cooling.
..Goss/Karstens.. 07/27/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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